Monty Hall Puzzle
Answer: Switch doors
Original probability of
car behind your door: 1/3
Original probability of car behind other
two doors: 2/3
If host eliminates one of the two doors
(he knows which does
not have the car) the probability of the car behind the door is still
2/3. Hence, you double your chance of
winning.
Think of it this way:
Probability of your door winning is 1/3
Probability of the other two doors is 2/3
If you could pick the other two doors
“together” you have a
2/3 probability of getting the car. The
host eliminates a goat from these two.
Your probability is still 2/3.
Another way of looking at it:
Your probability of winning is 1/3
Probability of the other two doors is 2/3
One door is eliminated.
Your probability is still 1/3.
Probability that it is the other door is 1-1/3 = 2/3 because probability must equal 1.